Let's Talk International Relations

Getting Our Money's Worth from Egypt

2006-05-18T11:50:00.000-07:00

After reading about the second protest broken up with brutal police tactics is less than a week, I decided to take some time and consider the United States relationship with Egypt. I did a brief survey of some recent testimony before the US Senate Committee on International Relations to see exactly where we are at with Egypt.

In similarity to basically every other government in the Middle East, the United States relationship with Egypt can be characterized as complicated and far from perfect, yet essential to any prospects for lasting stability and political change in the region. Like a couple that has been married for 50 years the US and Egypt seem to realize they need each other, but both come to the mutual conclusion that it doesn’t mean they have to like it. Egypt wants to be treated like a serious power, a major player in a vital part of the world, and accorded the respect a great and ancient civilization deserves. The US for its parts want to see some more “bang” for its foreign assistance “buck” in terms of firm commitments on domestic and regional political reform. Neither side seems completely enamored with the relationship, but a strategic “divorce” would be counter-productive to both countries interests.

Dr Michele Dunne from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace conceded in her testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “looking at the balance sheet of Egyptian politics in 2005, there were more positive than negative developments overall”. After looking at the issues that contributed to Ms Dunne’s conclusion I would have to agree. My reservation would be there is little evidence to suggest Egypt has committed a systemic policy of embracing democratization. The evolution towards democratic governance in Egypt seems to be characterized by a series of “two steps forward, one and a half steps back” in terms of progress. Independently minded political and judiciary leaders are still subject to widespread oppression and imprisonment. It seems evident Egypt will only allow a pace a democratization that does not threaten the stability of the current governing regime.

All told, it is my assessment, President Mubarak has actually only dealt with one internal threat to his government, other secular minded, albeit opposition political groups. The threat to the regime posed by Islamic militancy seems to be thriving. The secular minded Mubarak has used the perpetual State of Emergency and extensively centralized executive authority to disperse any credible political opposition and Islamist movements. While these tools have been regrettably effective in suppressing the formation of a credible opposition political base, the President’s tactics have only exacerbated what was once probably a manageable threat from Islamic extremists. The end result of his policies has been the weakening of secular minded civic leadership and the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood as a legitimate entity capable of challenging Egypt’s secular political establishment.

The very system of governance the ruling regime wishes to perpetuate is the greatest threat to Egypt realizing its aspirations of remaining a major and influential player in the Middle East.

However, President Mubarak does seem to be doing a good job is rallying domestic support on nationalist lines in opposition to US pressure to reform the government. As is the case in a country such as Iran, in Egypt, while the population may not be content with the current political leadership, they find the idea of foreign sponsored (especially American sponsored) intervention in their domestic politics even less palatable. That is mostly likely why any US influence on improving governance in Egypt will need to be sustained, nuanced and effectively “under the radar”.

I would stress sustained because there seems to be a growing sentiment in the greater Middle East that the United States will eventually tire of its campaign to bring democratic governance to the Middle East. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others have made some tangible recent strides towards improving their quality of governance but those improvements are at risk of becoming arrested due to US distraction in Iraq and Iran. While overtly tying to promise of continued aid to substantial political reform is an unrealistic policy objective for a variety of reasons, for the US to simply let its post 9/11 recommitment to democratic governance drift away would be a significant misstep in the execution of its foreign policy.

Ah, but there in lies the biggest challenge to the US policy of spreading democratic governance in the Middle East. Whether we like it or not, we need some of these corrupt, authoritarian regimes to help us with the problems of the here and now. Whether its securing assistance with securing Palestinian militant cooperation with Israel, or helping with counter-terrorism, as much as the US has many tools at its disposal to influence behavior, those governments also has some leverage of their own!

I’m beginning to tire of m babbling, but you know what that’s probably a good analogy for a discussion of Egyptian and American relations. It is not prefect. It is very complex. Nobody is especially thrilled with the arrangement. But nobody would dream of ever abandoning it. In a lot of ways that parallels my writing.

Ms Dunne had it right when she conceded, “there are more positive developments than negative” in Egypt. If the US and Egypt are really serious about realizing their objectives then this relationship will have to continue.

But that doesn’t mean we have to like it.

Darfur, the US, and China

2006-05-04T05:48:00.000-07:00

So while the US Deputy Secretary of State pushes for a peace deal between rebel forces and the Sudanese government in Darfur, I was wondering what the Chinese government was doing in order to facilitate an end to the genocide there. According to http://www.mosnews.com/, both China and Russia blocked a UN Security Council resolution put forth by the UK and USA to impose economic sanctions on four individuals assessed to be interfering with peace efforts in Darfur.

Why would China and Russia want to undercut efforts to bring peace to Darfur by opposing these sanctions? The US and UK are trying to engage in active diplomacy that offers both carrots and sticks in order to end the genocide in Darfur. Did China or Russia send any high level diplomatic personnel to Abuja to take part in peace negotiations? Is China or Russia prepared to take any sort of punitive action to punish those who commit atrocities against humanity?

What is China doing to improve the situation in Sudan? From here it doesn't look like much.

If I'm wrong, I want someone to show me...Seriously.

What is China Doing?

2006-05-02T06:34:00.000-07:00

What is China’s publicly stated foreign policy goals for North Korea, Sudan and Iran? What sort of environment does the current government in Beijing wish to see characterize the international system in the21st century. As the United States bears the brunt of most of the negative world opinion, I am constantly asking myself, what is China doing to improve the security situation in three of the world’s most complex developments. China seems to have more leverage than the US in all three of these countries. What steps is Beijing taking to resolve those situations?

Why is China against sanctions against an Iranian government that continually refuses to cooperate with the IAEA and the UN in accordance with its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?

How come China opposes sending a UN peacekeeping force to help end the genocide in Darfur? The UNSC could vote on the idea of sending some tangible support to the under-staffed, under supplied African Union force currently in Darfur, but China would veto it. Why?

If China really is against North Korea having nuclear weapons, why aren't they putting any pressure on Pyongyang to abandon their nuclear program? True China is not interested in triggering a flood of North Korean refugees into their country, but what is more dstabilizingng for North Korea as a country than its pursuit of nuclear weapons? Just think of the stabilizingng impact all the international relief, investment and good will that would come to a regime in Pynongyang that willingly abandoned its nuclear weapons prgram. What is keeping North Korea from being some sort of hybrid of its two exponentially more successufl neighbors South Korea and China?

Let Hamas Fail on Its Own

2006-02-14T06:26:00.000-08:00

I read a newswire piece on Reuters this morning detailing Israeli government efforts to isolate Hamas diplomatically and economically in the hopes of forcing its collapse. I am absolutely stunned at the lack of foresight the Israelis are showing by pursuing this strategy. Nearly every Middle Eastern government relishes the opportunity to blame the United States and Israel for the present state of affairs in their own countries. They love to distract their populations from their own ineptitude as leaders and brain wash their people into believing that the reason their quality of life is less than ideal is because of something the Americans and the Israelis are doing. It is a sound propaganda strategy that has successfully served the more corrupt governments in the Middle East.
If Israel pursues this strategy (at least publicly pursues it) they will actually be providing Hamas with a shield, protecting it from any consequences of any potential failures they experience as a governing body. If Hamas fails to achieve a workable relationship with the Israelis and improve the quality of life for the Palestinian people, they will have a ready-made excuse for their failures. They will be able to point the finger squarely at the Israelis and say to the Palestinian people, “we could have made a better life for you, but the Israelis made it impossible. They used their contacts and lobbyists to choke off the funds and diplomatic relations making it impossible to govern”. And unlike most other times when blaming the Israelis is completely ridiculous they would actually have a good point this time.
I don’t like Hamas. It is a terrorist group and it is dedicated to the destruction of one of the United States’ most stalwart allies. But they were elected in some of the most well run, free and fair elections the region has ever seen. They won on a platform not of Israeli destruction but of anti-corruption, anti-Fatah, and social welfare extension. I have serious reservations about their ability to deliver to the Palestinian people now that they are in control of the Palestinian Legislative Council. But the United States and Israel has to allow for Hamas to fail on its own. Any efforts to facilitate that failure will only reinforce the perception that the US and Israel don’t rally have any interest in Middle Eastern democracy. Efforts made to hasten the failure of Hamas will only make them stronger.
Yasser Arafat was a fraud, but he made a living out of distracting the Palestinian people and blaming Israel for his failure to improve their quality of life, even though it was his corruption and ineffective leadership style that mostly impacted the state of affairs in Palestine. But he died a revered figure!!!! Lets not give Hamas a safety shield. Let Hamas fail on its own.

Expect More of This

2006-02-02T06:03:00.000-08:00

You know there is a deficit of good governance and sound leadership in the Middle East when the world reports with despair that the Fatah Movement was defeated in open, free and fair elections in the Palestinian territories. Don’t get me wrong, I am not pleased with the election of Hamas to a position of real authority within the Palestinian government, but Hamas is who the Palestinian people chose to represent them, so at the very minimum, the United States and the rest of the western world has to take a step back and appreciate that point before any course of action is pursued.

If the European Union and the United States overplay their respective hands in this situation they put the development of democratic governance at risk in the Middle East. The elections were free, fair and conducted with little reported irregularities (something that can’t be said for the much heralded elections in Iraq and Afghanistan). If the Western world turns its back and scorns the popularly elected representative government of Palestine simply because it does not like the ideologies that government represents, what does that say about the level of respect the Western world has for the Palestinian electorate?

Ironically, if the West successfully isolates the new Palestinian government, it will play right into the hands of the despotic leaders of the regimes in Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Through their remarkably effective propaganda machines these governments will continue to poison their population’s minds with notions the West (especially the United States) only supports democracy in the Middle East if pro-Western, pro-Israeli, secular governments are elected. This thought process does not do the United States and its policy of spreading democracy throughout the parts of the world with a good government deficit any favors.

Do I like Hamas, of course not? They are responsible for supplying a majority of the firepower and suicide bombers during this latest intifada against Israel. But the elections that brought Hamas to power were arguably not about battling the Israelis; they were about removing a political establishment that for decades has squandered every opportunity to improve the lives of the Palestinian people. In addition to the suicide bombers and the dangerous rhetoric, Hamas also supplies schools, hospitals, and other social programs aimed at improving the quality of life for the Palestinian people. Fatah for decades has led the Palestinians nowhere due to their inability to govern and their culture of corruption.

Does Hamas need to dramatically change its policies towards terrorism and Israel, of course they do? But now is the time for both tact and pressure. Palestine just conducted free and fair elections that clearly demonstrate just how much of a sham the elections in Egypt and Saudi Arabia really were. However, Hamas has to understand, that now is the time to perform, now is the time to show the world and the Palestinian people that their party has the vision, the will, and the technical ability to improve the quality of life for the Palestinian people. They also have to accept the fact that they are now in the “big leagues” and when you are operating at this level, you are going to have to perform and play within the acceptable rules and norms of statecraft is you are going to earn the respect of the world.

Finally, lets be clear, after several generations of despotic rule, the only parties and opposition groups with any real credibility and clout in the Middle East are the Islamic parties. There is going to be more elections like this in the near term and the Western world is just going to have to get use to it. But as long as those elections aren’t a one man, one vote, one time situation, I think it’s a development the free world can and needs to live with. ama

Leverage Through Innovation: Energy Security Policy

2005-12-19T08:54:00.000-08:00

Its probably because of terrorism or the recent gas price spikes as a result of the horrible hurricane season on the Gulf Coast on the United States, but in this past year I have become increasing interested in alternative fuels and energy security. I don’t have encyclopedic knowledge of the subject; I can’t throw around impressive sounding theories or statistics when I talk about it with friends. I just have the base line idea that the competition for reliable sources of energy is one of the most serious issues confronting the United States in the early 21st century. It has environmental, economic, and security implications all and it represents an issue that will pit our vital/realist interest against our national ideological conscience. How do we achieve our vital national interest of achieving energy security without compromising our national ideals?

It seems as if the United States forced itself into bed with some of least desirable governments in the world for the sake of energy security for the 20th century. Regardless of the internal behavior of those governments the United States continued to do business with them on the basis of securing energy supplies. While we may have secured access to vital supplies of energy, the US did not pursue this goal with adequate attention to the internal behavior of the governments supplying these energy products. Like most things in life, there were consequences for this strategic decision. Despite some of these negative consequences, I have absolutely no problem with the execution of that strategy in the 20th century. But this is a new century with a whole new set of threats and a whole new strategic context, therefore it only makes sense the US develop an alternative energy security strategy that reflects the new dynamics in the international system.

The first component of that strategy should be the devotion of equal amounts of energy into finding alternate suppliers of crude oil outside of the Middle East. Already the United States government and business community is pursuing oil industry opportunities in alternative markets such as Central Asia and West Africa. This development is positive, as the US is looking to diversity its sources of crude oil beyond the turbulent deserts of the Middle East. The bad news is, Central Asia and West Africa are not world renowned for their stability. Unfortunately these areas are not models for their strict adherence to the rule of law, civil institutions, and good governance either.

The often-contradictory relationship between increased oil revenues and decreased civil liberties in underdeveloped oil states is well documented. This is why the US needs to move intelligently with expansion of oil ties with these countries. Isolation is not the way; I’m not saying the US should cut itself off from these states economically or diplomatically because their governments do not represent the best practices. I think brutally honest engagement is required to positively influence the internal behavior of the governments of some of these suddenly popular petrol states. A dynamic public diplomacy strategy needs to be implemented to engage political leadership and their populations. A common critique of the United States throughout the Middle East is that in our pursuit for reliable crude oil supplies we turn a blind eye to the living conditions of the people in these countries. In essence, that the US cares only about their oil not their liberty. I think this reputation is based much upon a misconception often perpetuated by false propaganda dispersed by some of these governments in an effort to divert attention from their own dismal performance as leaders. If the United States is going to make sustainable in-grounds in these new oil markets, a significant public diplomatic effort needs to be undertaken to combat the negative misconception of American policies so prevalent throughout the Middle East. The lessons learned from US energy policy in the Middle East must be applied to our energy policy in West Africa and Central Asia for there to be any hopes of a long term, relatively consequence free energy relationship in these regions.

The difficult problem with that policy is the United States needs the oil no matter what. From a realist or vital interest perspective, the US is going to be forced to pursue those relationships regardless of the internal behavior of the governments in the region because we need the oil…period. Our crude oil needs alone make this a reality. But another factor influencing US policy in these regions is the involvement of Iran, China, India, and Russia in some of those same markets. With the possible exception of India, none of those states make the internal behavior of state governments or their human rights and human dignity records a serious issue. Due to their own less than stellar records on these same issues, things like human rights and individual liberty just do not get in the way in negotiations for access to oil fields. This ultimately puts the United States at a disadvantage as it pursues the expansion of oil markets in other parts of the world. Especially if it makes the internal behavior of state governments a condition of doing business. China, Russia, and Iran simply aren’t as demanding as the United States when it comes to the internal behavior of state governments. So countries like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia don’t have to undertake the economic and political reforms necessary to improve the lives of their people because most of their oil customers won’t demand those changes a condition of doing business. Essentially the market place is not demanding these reforms be made so there is no incentive to make them. If you were Kazakhstan whom would you do business with? Would you choose the country making demands regarding how you treat your people as a pre-condition of doing business? Or would you choose the country that stream lines the process and doesn’t really care how you do what you do as long as access to oilfields is secure?

As an American I can see the gaping holes in the strategy of pursuing oil security at any price. It can contribute to negative popular opinion among the local populace. As I said before, I believe most of those bad feelings are based upon misconceived notions and false propaganda, but I’d be ignorant not to realize at least part of it is true. Strategically the US needed a secure, reliable, stable source of oil. I believe US polices assured that, but there was indeed a consequence to those policies. The perception, true or false, the US only cares about itself and oil and that it doesn’t care at all about the people in those petrol states. But the point is, the US might in fact lose in the battle to gain access to new oil markets if it attempts to apply its lessons learned from energy policies in the Middle East. How can the US protect its flank and assure its vital interest or securing a reliable and stable energy supply if its not willing to budge on its demands for improved internal behavior for state governments?

This is why the second component of US energy security strategy has to include an equal investment in time, effort, and money into the pursuit of alternative energy sources and technology beyond conventional petroleum products. Former US Secretary of State, George Shultz along with the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, James Woosley recently published a paper titled Oil and Security. http://www.fightingterror.org/ This paper explicitly outlines the risks of inaction and with the pursuit of a predominantly petroleum based energy policy. Issues such as the political volatility of supplier states, environmental concerns, susceptibility of oil pipelines to terrorist attack, and trade deficits are all potential threats to US national and economic security when we have a predominantly oil based energy policy. After outlining the risks, the two former US officials identified some potential solutions for decreasing our dependence on foreign oil supplies and gaining more consequence free energy security. The steps identified were:

1. Encourage improved vehicle mileage using technology now in production
a) Diesels
b) Hybrid gasoline-electric
c) Light weight carbon composite construction

2. Encourage commercialization of alternative transportation fuels that can be available soon, are compatible with existing infrastructure, and can be derived from waste or otherwise produced cheaply.
a)Biomass (cellulosic) ethanol
b)Bio-diesel and renewable diesel

3. Plug in hybrids and battery improvements

The steps suggested are as practical as they are fascinating and deserve further discussion in a future blog entry. The point I wish to highlight is that in pursuit of these solutions, the United States can not only improve its overall energy security, it can also regain its leverage in influencing oil supplier states to improve and reform their systems of governance. It is the best way for the United States to pursue its realist interests while not turning its back on its ideological conscience. The US can afford to be unbiased advocates for greater reform in he countries with plenty of oil but deficits in freedom because we will have achieved our own energy security through innovation, technological advancement, and ingenuity. And the best part is we will have achieved this energy security due our hard work not at the expense of those people who are oppressed by the petrol revenues gained by their corrupt governments. Innovation, respect for human rights, economic and technological security….What more could you ask for from an energy policy?

African Oil and African Freedom

2005-12-14T11:15:00.000-08:00

Much has been written about the potential negative impact sudden natural resource richness can have on the expansion of civil liberties, especially in the developing world. The discovery of valuable natural resources in countries without transparent and accountable governments can actually inhibit the expansion of their civil liberties for state populations. Corrupt leaders immune from removal from office due to the absence of elections or balance of power are able to maintain their positions through bribery, coercion, and abuse of national resources. The United States is working on diversifying its international oil providers network in an effort to reduce its vulnerability and exposure from more volatile suppliers in the Middle East. While I would applaud greater political and financial investment in alternative energy sources, I understand the immediate need to address American oil supply. How the United States goes about gaining access to different oil suppliers and the impact it has on the standard of living for the population’s of those supplier countries is a critically important issue.

Africa is receiving increased attention from the United States (and other energy hungry countries) in the effort to diversity oil suppliers. Among others in Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Chad, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, have largely proven though under developed crude oil deposits. Most major international oil corporations maintain a presence in the oil rich states in Africa and are taking advantage of the international onus to increase and diversify oil supply. Industry giants such as Chevron, Total, Exxon Mobil, are all expanding their operations on the continent trying to get in on the ground floor of much expected oil boom in Africa.

As the United States works to expand relationships with oil producing states in Africa, government and business leaders should take a moment of pause and analyze the approach they are taking with the oil industry in Africa. There is potential for great success and equal potential for overwhelming damage in developing the oil export industry in Africa. If the United States and other countries pursuing energy ties to Africa do not take a careful approach to the expansion of the oil industry there is a chance the standard of living and quality of life for the people of Africa could be even worse than it is today. Market forces can be powerful mechanisms of change. African states with vast oil deposits require access to foreign expertise, markets, and investment. States looking to secure supplies of African oil should use their overwhelming leverage to promote economic and government reforms in order to ensure access to oil does not come at the expense of the personal freedoms of the local population.

In my last “blog Entry” I discussed an article written by an international affairs observer who said the United States needs to balance its realist objectives with its ideological conscience. I can think of no better opportunity to experiment with this philosophy than in African oil industry. Clearly the United States has a realist objective in obtaining oil from more sources. Expanding the oil industry in Africa can help fulfill this objective. However, many of the governments in these oil rich countries do not practices the tenets of good governance. So while obtaining the necessary oil may fulfill a realist objective or vital interest, it could also result in a development that is contrary to US national ideals. Providing poorly governed states with extra revenues could work to perpetuate the survival of their regime and further restrict the civil liberties and quality of life for their civilians. Corrupt leaders have shown the tendency to concentrate revenues for regime survival rather than social investment and improvement. Securing regional stability and access to oil supplies remains important for the United States. But if these conditions are met at the expense of expansion of civil liberties and democratic values, there will be a price to be paid in the future. Stability at the price of freedom is an volatile formula.

Excellent Academic Publication

2005-11-30T10:58:00.000-08:00

I recently read an article published in the US Army War College's publication, Parameters. Bradley Bowman wrote the article, "Realism and Idealism: US Policy Toward Saudi Arabia, from the Cold War to Today". I found Mr. Bowman's article to be extremely engaging and very readable. Unlike many academically based foreign policy publications, Mr. Bowman was able to conduct a survey of American foreign policy in Saudi Arabia and the greater Middle East in an articulate manner that was not beyond the general understanding of the average reader.

I was particularly impressed with the way Mr. Bowman explained how the United States can achieve its realist interests in a manner that reflects the country's idealist conscience. He was quick to point out for the US policy of spreading and supporting the growth of democracy to be effective, more work must be done to temper the expectations of the American people. The growth of democracy will certainly not happen over night and recognition of this fact and adjusting the expectations of the American people will help to better clarify the policy of the United States to Americans. In much the same way most Americas were familiar with the concept of containment during the Cold War, Americans now need to be re-educated on the policies and philosophies governing US foreign policy during the 21st century and beyond.

Mr Bowman then went on the rectify the concerns over the pace of government reforms in countries of strategic importance to the US versus the need for stability. Before elections can take place and the final touches are completed marking the transition to democratic governance, the key components of civil society must be in place or else elections will prove to be destabilize and counter-productive. The civil institutions identified by Mr. Bowman include, "constrained executive power, rule of law, an independent and nondiscriminatory judiciary, civil liberties such as the freedom of press and the freedom to join groups and lobby government, and the right to own private property...". Without the existence of these institutions, elections will be at best tenuous and at worst fraudulent in their execution.

Reading through the article and understanding the US high priority on oil supply stability over democratic reform in Saudi Arabia, one is tempted to contemplate how much better off the US would be if it had a diversified energy sources. However, while the need for energy source diversification is important, readers should resist the temptation to reduce this article to a discussion on the subject. In a globalization world, the US is always going to need something from someone. The question is how the US secures that something without compromising its moral standards. The pursuit of secure and viable oil supplies is just one example for study between America's needs and its values.

After reading this article, one topic worthy of discussion is how best to temper the expectations of the people in the countries in the world with the least amount of freedom. During the Cold War the US often times pursued its realist interests at the expense of its idealist conscience by supporting authoritarian regimes for the sake of stability and containing the spread of communism. Unfortunately the support of authoritarian regimes went hand in hand with the restriction of freedoms for many of the people living in these countries. This inherently led to an erosion of US image in many of these countries and was a contributing factor to the overall deep levels of frustration within countries not featuring democratic governments. Therefore, its imperative for the US to continue to articulate its policies overseas and to utilize every resource to temper the expectations of the the people living in the countries with less than ideal democratic tendencies. This is especially the case in the countries where the US depends on the support of questionable regimes and governments (see Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Kyrgyzstan). If the citizens of these countries continue to believe the US is willing to turn a blind eye to the repression of their freedoms for the sake of stability, the image of the US will continue to plummet. For this reason US Embassies must do a much better job of articulating US policy goals and encouraging the establishment of civil institutions in countries where they're non-existent or underdeveloped. US Embassy sponsorship of small business initiatives, local universities, think tanks and good governance non governmental organizations is essential to countering the idea of US hypocrisy in its execution of foreign policy.

Maybe Gingrich Isn't So Creepy

2005-11-18T10:32:00.000-08:00

I really don’t know much about Newt Gingrich. Honestly whenever I see the guy on television he usually gives me the creeps. However, from what I understand his intellect meets no rival and even his adversaries are forced to admire his skill and vision. I must admit, I think I understand what all the positive hype surrounding Newt Gingrich is all about now that I’ve read his testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He testified on 19 October about the condition of the US intelligence apparatus and projections for that apparatus to fulfill the requirements necessary to counter the threats facing the United States in the 21st century.

All in all the testimony seemed balance, but he had plenty of recommendations about how the US should continue to reform the intelligence community beyond the fledgling steps taken with the appointment of John Negroponte to the position of Director on National Intelligence. One of the more poignant observations the former House Speaker made was that the United States has not adequately organized itself from a governmental or societal perspective to address the issues that are critical to this country’s survival in the 21st century and beyond. On this point, I cannot agree with Mr. Gingrich more. He wisely cites the Hart/Rudman Commission’s observation that the condition of math and science education in this country is in need of serious repair and that ignoring the need for more focus on science and mathematics in our schools has serious implications for our national security.

The American people have thus far demonstrated we learned our lesson from the dreadful way we treated our military service members during the Vietnam War. Although public support for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan is failing, the devotion and respect the American people pay to the men and women of the armed forces remains strong. However, Mr. Gingrich’s point about the status of American science and math education illuminates there are other heroes in this country who need to be recognized for the role they play in securing this nation’s security and prosperity. Where would this country be with Edison, Bell, Ford, Gates, Carnegie, and Einstein? The key to out continued security and prosperity is rooted not just in our military prosperity and strength but also in the strength of our educational system especially in math and science. As a country we need to refocus our efforts to produce more citizens with the skills in math and science that will keep the United States at the forefront of discovery, innovation, and creativity. If we don’t regenerate our science and math expertise to a new generation then our ability to make technological advances will suffer. This will have dyer consequences for out national security.

Math and science education is just one point Mr. Gingrich made about the changes we need to make as a society to remain in as position of strength. Assessing intelligence successes and failures using measurable standards and metrics, developing and nurturing the analytical capacity of the intelligence agencies, re-educating our intelligence agencies about the importance of linguistics and culture, and redefining the nature of the enemy and the war the US in currently engaged in are all issues discussed during Mr. Gingrich’s testimony. I highly recommend people take a few minutes to read this very provocative and thought provoking assessment of the US intelligence community and its development for the 21st century.

Teachers Getting Whipped in Saudi Arabia

2005-11-18T09:45:00.000-08:00

Yahoo.news published an article today about a court case with serious implications for free speech and educational reform in Saudi Arabia. Mohammed Salamah al-Harbi is a high school chemistry teacher in Riyadh and he has recently been sentenced to 40 months in prison and 750 lashes for comments he made during a class. What sort of comments could he have made that would warrant such a harsh and strange sentence? The court found the teacher made comments that were considered blasphemous to Islam. He defended Jews and Christians and openly ridiculed some of the components of Islam.

Although this is just one example, it serves as a necessary reminder so much work still needs to be done at the lowest, tactical levels to combat backward ideologies that are poisoning tomorrow’s citizens in Saudi Arabia. True Mr. Al-Harbi might have been better served sticking to density, test tubes, and chemistry in his classroom. But if Saudi Arabia is really going to counter the radical forces that are eroding the Kingdom from within, then it needs to address the lack of freedom of speech in its society and the lack of reform in its school. Saudi students need to be given academic freedom in order to secure the critical thinking skills necessary to be productive members of their society. Their teachers need to be given the freedom to instruct their students and give them the knowledge required to lead their country through the 21st century. This inability for Saudi society to adapt and reform itself is a problem not only for the Kingdom itself but for the region and the world as well. The lack of education reform and freedom of speech is thwarting the Kingdom from developing innovative thinkers and breaking through the ideologies crippling the country. The country’s entire financial well bring is not rooted in the skills and innovation of its people. It is rooted in crude oil. That will remain the case until Saudi Arabia makes the essential reforms to save itself.

How many more outspoken high school teachers will be whipped before this happens?

War on Terrorism and Congress

2005-11-04T10:27:00.000-08:00

America's funding of the efforts to combat extremism and terrorism took a bit of a funding hit this week. In this era of high federal debt and growing financial obligations lawmakers are making every effort to reduce the pressures of budget deficits on the economic solvency and security of the United States. Both chambers of Congress have approved tens of billions of dollars in cuts of discretionary spending for the next five years. Among some of the programs impacted by these cuts in the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the State Department's Antiterrorism Training Assistance program.

While I applaud Congress' efforts to reduce the country's fiscal deficit I am disappointed two low profile yet essential national security programs are being targeted for funding cuts. The Millennium Challenge Corporation is an agency with the mission of distributing American foreign aid only to countries engaging in serious political reform aimed at reaching appropriate levels of good governance. More than any other factor, I believe the absence of good, transparent governance contributes to so much human suffering in the world. While their is certainly a fair amount of suffering and trouble in country's featuring the characteristic's of good governance, I don't think its too far a stretch to say those countries without good, accountable governance are far less capable of protecting the rights and ensuring the tools of self determination are provided to their people.

By reducing the funding levels of the Millennium Challenge Corporation, Congress is reducing the amount of assistance the US is willing to provide countries making the difficult and necessary reforms to improve their quality of governance. Its sending the message that the spread of quality governance around the world is less of a priority. Its is my opinion the US should be enabling reform and good governance rather than turning its back on those in need of assistance to make the transition to quality governance. While not a "silver bullet" to all of the threats out there, the nurturing of quality governance around the world is an important component to US national security.

On the less theoretical, more tangible side of the US national security strategy, cuts in funding for the State Department's Antiterrorism Training assistance Program is another disappointing development. The US can't be everywhere at all times, and enlisting other global players in the war against terrorism is an essential element to victory. This is one of the best tools for national security professionals to assist in the training of counter-terrorism forces in countries wishing to help fight against extremism. Not to mention it helps establish a diplomatic bridge with these countries that can extend benefits in the realms of trade and intelligence sharing as well.

Self sufficiency, independence good governance. Encouraging these ideals will go a long way to combating the threats posed to the United States and will also help other countries and other people of the world ensure a better future for themselves. Cuts in these two programs works against the best interests of the United States and the rest of people so badly in need of freedom.

Iran: Is Ayatollah Khamenei Having Second Thoughts?

2005-11-02T09:43:00.000-08:00

If not a coup, I think there are indicators pointing to a power struggle between Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the new President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Although Ayatollah Khamenei supported the candidacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad it appears the decision to back a little known politician with no foreign policy experience is beginning to trouble the Supreme Leader. The recent increase in unpredictable and unexplainable behavior by President Ahmadinejad may actually be an indication there is a growing power struggle between the President and the Ayatollah.

EurasiaNet.org recently published an extraordinary article detailing some of the behind the scenes political maneuvering going on in Iran. It appears Ayatollah Khamenei has taken a series of steps to counter-balance the growing domestic authority of President Ahmadinejad in the conservative circles of the Iranian ruling establishment. According to EurasiaNet, “Ayatollah Khamenei is reportedly worried about the meteoric political rise of clerics and institutions with close ties to Ahmadinejad’s presidency - in particular Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Messbah Yazdi”. Apparently Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Messbah Yazdi has been making serious attempts to stack the Assembly of Experts with members supporting his hard-line views. The Assembly of Experts is one of several quasi-governmental panels in Iran tasked with overseeing the activities of the country’s secular governing bodies. However, the Assembly of Experts is the only organization with the constitutional authority to replace the Grand Ayatollah. This in conjunction with President Ahmadinejad’s appointment of virtual political novices to key positions within the Iranian government seems to be fueling the Ayatollah’s suspicions that efforts are being made to consolidate power within the new hard-liner leadership hierarchy.

The key counter-balancing initiative the Ayatollah has taken has been the reorganization of the Expediency Council presently led by former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The Expediency Council, which is led by Rafsanjani, has now been given the authority to supervise the work of the three branches of government one of which is headed by President Ahmadinejad. This constitutional maneuver brings us to the present point. After the Ayatollah re-asserted the pragmatic Rafsanjani to political relevance, President Ahmadinejad made his now infamous speech calling for Israel to be wiped off the map. The EurasiaNet article explains, “those comments were designed to accomplish two objectives - to reassert the supremacy of presidential authority and to undermine an attempted rapprochement with the United States that was being guided by Rafsanjani”. One under current to the ongoing situation with Iran’s nuclear program has been the subtle whisperings from US and Iranian officials about the possibility of direct dialogue between the two rivals. The recent statements and appointments made by President Ahmadinejad to co-opt those favoring rapprochement within the Iranian government with new officials more willing to support the less than pragmatic ideologies of Ahmadinejad’s hard-line backers.

This brings us to today’s announcement by the Ahmadinejad Administration about the re-call and re-assignment of several ambassadors to key foreign posts. The senior diplomats to France, the UN, Germany and Great Britain were all instructed to return today. All four of those diplomats were appointed to their posts by the reform minded former President Khatami. All four were major players in the ongoing debate concerning Iran’s nuclear program. In addition to these ambassadors, the BBC reports at least 35 other ambassadors are scheduled for replacement in the very near term. This comes as the President nominated a virtual unknown to the critically important and remarkably prestigious position of oil minister. The President nominated Sadeq Mahsouli, to be the new oil minister but the appointment needs to be approved by Parliament. The President’s first nominee was rejected by the Parliament in August but the rejection didn’t deter the President from nominating someone from his conservative camp.

The removal of some many ambassadors and the continued insistence to appoint strict hard-liners to key government positions indicates the President is not going to sit idly by and let the Ayatollah dictate the terms of his Presidency. I don’t pretend to know all the in’s and out’s of Iranian domestic politics, but this rift within the conservative movement in Iran is likely to have serious ramifications for energy and security issues in the region and around the world.

Central Asia and US Policy

2005-11-01T12:38:00.000-08:00

Central Asia and the greater Caucasus region has developed into a strategically important part of the world for many different countries. More than the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America, the bigger countries of the world seem to be engaged in a serious competition vying for influence in a part of the world that literally "straddles" so many different civilizations.
I was reading some of the testimony offered by witnesses for the US House of Representatives International Relations Subcommittee on Middle East and Central Asia. Daniel Fried is the Assistant Secretary of State this region. During the course of his testimony he outlined the key interests the US has in Central Asia. Security, energy and economic collaboration, and freedom through reform were the three most important factors to US interests in Central Asia. Secretary Fried's analysis of the ongoing security and political developments in the region were clearly articulated and I enjoyed this one particular piece from his testimony:

"In FY 2005, we budgeted over $240 million in assistance to Central Asia, focusing our efforts on building and strengthening civil society, promoting democratic and economic reform, and combating criminal activities and terrorism. We are also directing assistance toward promoting regional security through counterproliferation, counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics
cooperation. This is money well spent.

We pursue all three sets of our strategic interests in tandem, because failure in one area will undermine the chance of success in another. We are therefore supporting political and economic reform, rule of law, good governance, respect for human rights, religious freedom and tolerance, free trade and open markets, development of small businesses, energy investment, and cooperation in the fight against terror and weapons of mass destruction, all at the same time".

I take the Secretary's testimony at face value and assume he is telling the truth. I like the language he uses and sincerely hope the US is taking a three dimensional, muti-faceted approach to advancing our interests in this region the Secretary identifies in his testimony. For a few years now there has been a debate between those supporting a purely realist approach to US foreign and national security policy versus those who advise a more humanistic approach focusing on securing our security by helping others advance their freedom and security. I think the key point of Secretary Fried's testimony is the idea that working for others interestss in conjunction with our own is consistent, long-term, winning strategy in promotion of our position in Central Asia as well as the rest of the world.

I just fear so much damage has been done to America's reputation in recent years that no matter how mutually beneficial our foreign policy may be, the international community is going to resist it simply becausee its being put forth by America.

WTO Impact on Saudi Oil Industry

2005-10-31T12:03:00.000-08:00

With Saudi Arabia admittance to the World Trade Organization the petroleum consuming world may now receive a much-needed glance into the inner workings and details of the Saudi oil industry. Although Western oil firms have been in Saudi Arabia for more than a century, speculation still abounds about the exact depth of the Saudi oil reserves. From what I understand, the location, depth, and life span of Saudi Arabia’s oil fields is one the state’s most closely held secrets. Could this admittance to the WTO eventually lead to the disclosure of the scientific and geological foundation of the Saudi oil industry?
I’m not certain it will happen over night. If Saudi Arabia is like all the other members of the WTO, it will bend the rules of the organization to the point of violation in the defense of its most cherished and essential industries. However, it should be interesting to find out what impact market forces and WTO membership will have on the opaque nature of the Saudi oil industry. Perhaps once those numbers are released the question about the future of oil supplies will be answered with greater authority and accountability than the official announcements of the monarchy.

Instruments of Democracy

2005-10-24T18:51:00.000-07:00

I admit, I like the President's vision about the power of democracy and every person's right to freedom. I believe those people who have a reasonable expectation to the tools of self-determination will use those tools to make a better life for themselves. I guess I tend to think if people have access to the tools of self determination, they will be too busy making a better life for themselves legitimately to be corrupted by illiegitimate and empty ideologies.

I just read something a few minutes ago and it upset me a little bit. It also reemphasized a point about democracy I think escapes most debates about its power to transform societies. An editor in Afghanistan was arrested when articles assessed to be anti-Islam were publsihed in his magazine. Apparently the democratically elected government in Afghanistan approved a bill in March 2004 banning all news and media content insulting to Islam. The Primary Court in Kabul convicted the editor for violating the law, but luckily the editor has the right to appeal the conviction to the Second Court.

The presence of the freedom of press, transparent and accountable political leadership, separation of powers, freedom of speech, rule of law, political parties and other institutions of freedom are the truest measure of democacy's influence in a society. People tend to equate democracy with elections and then assume the story ends there. However, without the most essential elements and instituations of democracy the possibility of elections being manipulated and perversed in the hands of an oppressive leadership remains a significant threat.

Don't get me wrong elections are important. Ounce for ounce they are probably the most important aspect of a democracy because they represent the people's most direct voice in choosing how they will be governed and what sort of society they will represent. However, without those other important institutions elections could be a one time event in fledgling democracies. One time elections in new democracies usually lead to only one thing, dictatorships.

Annan Gets Report

2005-10-20T11:44:00.000-07:00

Well, here we go. I just read the Reuters report indicating the head of the UN team investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Harari has handed over his key findings to Secretary General Kofi Annan. I've jumped around different blogs, websites, and think tanks, trying to get a handle on what's going to happen if the report does in fact implicate the highest levels of the Syrian government in the assassination.

If the report does point to high level Syrian involvement in this I wonder if we'll see protests in Beirut of a similar scale to the ones witnessed in the wake of Harari's assassination in February.

Calling All Iranian English Speakers and Expats!!!

2005-09-27T12:18:00.000-07:00

Good Afternoon,
Alright, the purpose of this blog is for me to learn more about the rest of the world. So here goes nothing. This is an announcement for all Iranian English speakers and expats out there. They only reason I say English speakers is because I can't speak any other language.
Here is my first question. Here in the United States we constantly here there is a strong but unorganized desire for serious reform within Iran, and that this desire for reform comes mainly from the youth of the country. I'd like to hear from some of those who are looking for reform in Iran. What sort of reforms are you looking for in your country? Do you desire a new style of governance other than the type of governance thats there now? How would you classify the governance in Iran?
I'm trying to learn more about the outside world and reduce my level of ignornace, so please excuse the pedestrian nature of my questions. Throw me some of your thoughts and let me hear what you have to say.

Thanks
Dan